NKR
03-17 10:50 AM
Before retrogression started in "October 2005 Bulletin, Nov 2005 effective", there are quite a few people who applied for I-485 and had PD upto sept 2004. Those cases are approved. I know couple of cases myself.
I think I was current then and I missed out on that date since I was stuck in backlog elimination centre. you could be right.
I think I was current then and I missed out on that date since I was stuck in backlog elimination centre. you could be right.
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alisa
01-20 03:44 PM
This is all for EB-3.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
skd
09-17 04:33 PM
If you have been following the news this week, the economy is really in trouble. Specifically financial and insurance sector. Dow plunged around 900 + points in last 2 days.
2011 cats-dont-dance 5 ♥ 05.08.11
lord_labaku
07-11 12:50 PM
I dont think USCIS intends to take out the visa numbers for them.
DOS (who publishes the visa bulletin) wants USCIS to take out the numbers....but USCIS sits all day scratching their bottoms & not approving any cases with current priority dates.
P.S : Pardon my crassness; but people waiting in line would definitely understand frustration.
DOS (who publishes the visa bulletin) wants USCIS to take out the numbers....but USCIS sits all day scratching their bottoms & not approving any cases with current priority dates.
P.S : Pardon my crassness; but people waiting in line would definitely understand frustration.
more...
amitjoey
01-18 11:51 AM
Need 898 members with minimum of $20 monthly recurring.
If you set yourself up for monthly contribution please deduct a number from 898
If you set yourself up for monthly contribution please deduct a number from 898
jamesbond007
02-19 03:06 PM
Instead of opposing it for fear of application deluge, why not ask for a clause that says applications should be adjudicated within a certain timeframe?
And do not under estimate USCIS. They are capable of approving 45K GCs in a week. (July 2007??). They may not want to do it for various reasons - rake in perpetual fees on renewals, numerical limitations each month/quarter/year etc. I think they have the capability; but not the willingness.
May be getting 10 millions latinos in the AOS queue is what is needed to improve the USCIS' processing. With them, the latinos also bring their strong lobbying efforts too.
There has to be some movement towards bettering the immigration process in this country. If you will only accept a "perfect" fix, no reform will ever make it. Any change towards improving the immigration process should be encouraged.
It is really sad to see opposition to this proposal just because it did not include every one.
And do not under estimate USCIS. They are capable of approving 45K GCs in a week. (July 2007??). They may not want to do it for various reasons - rake in perpetual fees on renewals, numerical limitations each month/quarter/year etc. I think they have the capability; but not the willingness.
May be getting 10 millions latinos in the AOS queue is what is needed to improve the USCIS' processing. With them, the latinos also bring their strong lobbying efforts too.
There has to be some movement towards bettering the immigration process in this country. If you will only accept a "perfect" fix, no reform will ever make it. Any change towards improving the immigration process should be encouraged.
It is really sad to see opposition to this proposal just because it did not include every one.
more...
greyhair
02-09 02:33 PM
Why am I not suprised with this news?
I think it is self evident that even though there is some spill over I think large number of visa's are getting wasted. Else last year we should have seen better movement than just wrapping up 2004. In 2008 there were so many people with 2005 & 2006 PD who were approved. I think it was either inefficiency on part of USCIS or a go slow directive from the administation that has caused visa wastage.
One immigration business shop says that visas are being wasted and that's our proof. We are now ready to list the reasons why visa numbers are being wasted. Not only the visas have been wasted but according to you the reason for wastage are -
1.) Inefficiency
2.) Directive from the administration
But before that, can anybody prove conclusively that visa numbers were wasted. What is the proof? Just because my application is pending doesn't mean that USCIS is wasting green card numbers. Give us all proof that visa numbers are being wasted. Where is the proof. Around 20 days back I wrote an email to the immigration business shop asking for proof of waste of visa numbers. No response.
I think it is self evident that even though there is some spill over I think large number of visa's are getting wasted. Else last year we should have seen better movement than just wrapping up 2004. In 2008 there were so many people with 2005 & 2006 PD who were approved. I think it was either inefficiency on part of USCIS or a go slow directive from the administation that has caused visa wastage.
One immigration business shop says that visas are being wasted and that's our proof. We are now ready to list the reasons why visa numbers are being wasted. Not only the visas have been wasted but according to you the reason for wastage are -
1.) Inefficiency
2.) Directive from the administration
But before that, can anybody prove conclusively that visa numbers were wasted. What is the proof? Just because my application is pending doesn't mean that USCIS is wasting green card numbers. Give us all proof that visa numbers are being wasted. Where is the proof. Around 20 days back I wrote an email to the immigration business shop asking for proof of waste of visa numbers. No response.
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ChainReaction
08-09 08:17 AM
I called the 800# today bec the TSC IO told me to check back after45 days and now I was told to wait for 90 days bec of the JulyAug backlog. After I conversed with the IO I told them what if the application is lost , should i be refiling my 485 , since the deadline is Aug17, so she transfered me to her super wiser and he looked for my name in the system and told me there is no update so far and he is placing an inquiry and that will take another 30 days and there is nothing else he can do in regards... And the wait of 30 or 90 days is way passed the Aug17th deadline.
I think USCIS should honor resubmitted application passed Aug17th deadline if we have to refile our I485 due to lost mail based on Tracking conformation from FEDEX which have the Signature conformation of IO when they received the mail?
There isn't lot of time left if I have to refile my 485 application , I have to call my lawyer to get the paperwork ready, Employer for the job letter and not to mention the Doctor for the medical ,I don't even know if he will issue a duplicate I693 or i have to get all the test redone ?
I think USCIS should honor resubmitted application passed Aug17th deadline if we have to refile our I485 due to lost mail based on Tracking conformation from FEDEX which have the Signature conformation of IO when they received the mail?
There isn't lot of time left if I have to refile my 485 application , I have to call my lawyer to get the paperwork ready, Employer for the job letter and not to mention the Doctor for the medical ,I don't even know if he will issue a duplicate I693 or i have to get all the test redone ?
more...
tjayant
11-21 09:45 PM
Correct me guys if this is worng, it is my undestanding i can convert from EB3 to EB2 from same employer or from another employer but retain the priroirty date, say i applied by GC under EB3 say in 2003, i can ask my employer to convert to EB2 or another employer can file a new application under EB2 using PERM and use the same priority date as EB3 while file the I485
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Jello
04-05 08:39 AM
Has any body got any news or latest development about FBI name check?
more...
aj1234567
07-18 06:08 PM
Hi Gurus,
My PD is Dec06 EB2, do you have any guess when I will be current.
Thanks
My PD is Dec06 EB2, do you have any guess when I will be current.
Thanks
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spicy_guy
07-13 06:38 PM
August 2010 Visa Bulletin – EB-2 and EB-3 Substantial Forward Movement (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2010/07/13/august-2010-visa-bulletin-%E2%80%93-eb-2-and-eb-3-substantial-forward-movement/)
"
Forward Movement Is Temporary
Note that the substantial forward movement does not indicate a trend; instead, the last two visa bulletins� forward movement was to ensure that no available visa numbers remain unused due to poor allocation of the unused numbers. We expect that there be some retrogression over the next 1-3 months.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application, should your priority date become current.
"
"
Forward Movement Is Temporary
Note that the substantial forward movement does not indicate a trend; instead, the last two visa bulletins� forward movement was to ensure that no available visa numbers remain unused due to poor allocation of the unused numbers. We expect that there be some retrogression over the next 1-3 months.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application, should your priority date become current.
"
more...
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vdlrao
09-26 02:43 PM
Dear Reader,
Thank you for your interest in FSB. We admit that there was a
mischaracterization of the Capitol Hill rally in the story and it was
corrected as soon we realized the error.
We have changed the story to correctly identify the mission as a protest of
the long delays in securing green cards for highly-skilled workers already
in the U.S.
We will work to avoid errors like this in the future.
Best regards,
FSB
Thank you for your interest in FSB. We admit that there was a
mischaracterization of the Capitol Hill rally in the story and it was
corrected as soon we realized the error.
We have changed the story to correctly identify the mission as a protest of
the long delays in securing green cards for highly-skilled workers already
in the U.S.
We will work to avoid errors like this in the future.
Best regards,
FSB
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laborchic
09-19 10:47 AM
The reason there were so many placards was - we were expecting atleast 10000 people to show up and with the kind of poor response we got, we were expecting atleast 5000 and thats why there was 700 banners ordered.
If we had the magic figure 10000, the impact could have been marvellous. The banner count would have been appropriate
With 1500 to 2000 - every individual had a banner or a placard or a flag.
Mark's speech was hillarious - but had very strong messages - THESE ARE THINGS THAT NEED SPECIAL SKILLS - AND MARK PULLED IT THROUGH EXTREMELY WELL. Mark is a pround member of the Tri State Chapter and his contributions towards the cause are amazing
Robert Sun (LIA) - was good. Well he was praising Indians and CHinese. Nothing wrong - but yes can be more comprehensive in nature.
We had people from all nationalities - and a lot of people seem to be silent supporters of IV - very passionate about this organization.
Jay was at his best - He took on Lou Dobbs - Which was the best part.
The only lesson I would say that we must learn is - low numbers - YES. The turnout should have been atleast 10000 - though 2000 is good. Just proves how selfish those free riders are who can let down your own community who are helping you.
I was part of the rally... I am proud of IV and everyone who attended it..WHAT tri-state chapter are you talking about ?? How many people are enrolled in it and how many showed up for the rally???
If we had the magic figure 10000, the impact could have been marvellous. The banner count would have been appropriate
With 1500 to 2000 - every individual had a banner or a placard or a flag.
Mark's speech was hillarious - but had very strong messages - THESE ARE THINGS THAT NEED SPECIAL SKILLS - AND MARK PULLED IT THROUGH EXTREMELY WELL. Mark is a pround member of the Tri State Chapter and his contributions towards the cause are amazing
Robert Sun (LIA) - was good. Well he was praising Indians and CHinese. Nothing wrong - but yes can be more comprehensive in nature.
We had people from all nationalities - and a lot of people seem to be silent supporters of IV - very passionate about this organization.
Jay was at his best - He took on Lou Dobbs - Which was the best part.
The only lesson I would say that we must learn is - low numbers - YES. The turnout should have been atleast 10000 - though 2000 is good. Just proves how selfish those free riders are who can let down your own community who are helping you.
I was part of the rally... I am proud of IV and everyone who attended it..WHAT tri-state chapter are you talking about ?? How many people are enrolled in it and how many showed up for the rally???
more...
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greyhair
02-08 06:01 PM
Frankly I think that this lawyer is just posting provocative material to make himself popular. He has made many predictions and number of "useful" analysis in the past, most of which were found to be untrue. I used to read his posts until recently I figured out that the analysis was unreliable. This is just my opinion.
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thepaew
05-26 04:51 PM
We were traveling the Montr�al on Friday and saw this too. The Border Patrol had set up a roadblock on I-93 S and were stopping everyone.
While on the way back from White Mountains in NH, our car was stopped on I-93 south by the US border patrol. They were stopping every single vehicle to question. They had over a dozen Govt vehicles with 40-50 people in uniform. My buddy was driving.
Officer : Sir what is your status in the US ?
Buddy: I am on L1 visa
I: H1B
buddy's wife: L2
my wife: H4
officer: is anyone US citizen ?
I: my son is (he was sitting in the car seat)
Officer: (to my buddy) Is your visa still valid ?
Buddy: yes
officer: do you have documents to prove your status?
buddy: i have some papers in my bag which in the the trunk
officer: can you show me?
(buddy got out showed him tax papers and answered some questions)
officer: did they not tell you you are supposed to carry your papers while travelling?
buddy: I came over a year ago so i don't remember
officer: I am letting you go, but i could have fined you $2000; $500 for each pasenger with no papers.
I was so pissed off by this experience, clearly they are doing this to harrase immigrants. theoratically even if I am going for a walk i am supposed to carry immigration papers because a border patrol officer, in theory, could asks me for my papers ?
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/immigration_Border_flyer.pdf
I have decided that if anyone ask me such a stupid question again inside the US and i am just going to remain silent even if that means they detain me for some time.
While on the way back from White Mountains in NH, our car was stopped on I-93 south by the US border patrol. They were stopping every single vehicle to question. They had over a dozen Govt vehicles with 40-50 people in uniform. My buddy was driving.
Officer : Sir what is your status in the US ?
Buddy: I am on L1 visa
I: H1B
buddy's wife: L2
my wife: H4
officer: is anyone US citizen ?
I: my son is (he was sitting in the car seat)
Officer: (to my buddy) Is your visa still valid ?
Buddy: yes
officer: do you have documents to prove your status?
buddy: i have some papers in my bag which in the the trunk
officer: can you show me?
(buddy got out showed him tax papers and answered some questions)
officer: did they not tell you you are supposed to carry your papers while travelling?
buddy: I came over a year ago so i don't remember
officer: I am letting you go, but i could have fined you $2000; $500 for each pasenger with no papers.
I was so pissed off by this experience, clearly they are doing this to harrase immigrants. theoratically even if I am going for a walk i am supposed to carry immigration papers because a border patrol officer, in theory, could asks me for my papers ?
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/immigration_Border_flyer.pdf
I have decided that if anyone ask me such a stupid question again inside the US and i am just going to remain silent even if that means they detain me for some time.
more...
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gc28262
08-10 03:26 PM
Before proposing a solution, we need to make sure these are valid arguments. We need to crack INA ourselves to make sure were making a valid legal argument.
Those of you are willing to join effort on the following thread, please pm GCPerm.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1599562-team-visa-allocation-by-dos.html#post1977684
Those of you are willing to join effort on the following thread, please pm GCPerm.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1599562-team-visa-allocation-by-dos.html#post1977684
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logiclife
12-29 01:39 AM
Whatever you guys are doing ... its working.
We are seeing higher than usual new registrations on this website in the past week.
Thank you all for posting about Immigration Voice everywhere else.
We are seeing higher than usual new registrations on this website in the past week.
Thank you all for posting about Immigration Voice everywhere else.
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Administrator2
04-21 10:23 AM
Sorry, did not see this thread before.
Please let me know if you still need someone to call members. I am available until 4pm EST today.
Thank you ns007 and other members who have send PM today offering to volunteer for this initiative.
gsc999, ArunAntonio, pcs, newuser, willgetgc2005, pasupuleti, caydee, gcnirvana, ramaonline, 485Mbe4001 and samir took the lead in volunteering for calling our friends in CA. IV very much appreciates their willingness to volunteer.
We all will soon need to get into more active mode to participate in similar events in the local areas/communities. Kindly update your profile with your contact information. This is very important so that we could contact whenever there is any such opportunity.
Please let me know if you still need someone to call members. I am available until 4pm EST today.
Thank you ns007 and other members who have send PM today offering to volunteer for this initiative.
gsc999, ArunAntonio, pcs, newuser, willgetgc2005, pasupuleti, caydee, gcnirvana, ramaonline, 485Mbe4001 and samir took the lead in volunteering for calling our friends in CA. IV very much appreciates their willingness to volunteer.
We all will soon need to get into more active mode to participate in similar events in the local areas/communities. Kindly update your profile with your contact information. This is very important so that we could contact whenever there is any such opportunity.
Buran
02-15 01:33 PM
http://www.workpermit.com/news/2007-05-16/us/h-1b-visa-outsourcing-abuse-investigation.htm
After the stunning demand for the H-1B visa this year, people began to investigate the problem. Congress and the White House are trying to craft major immigration reform this year, and an understanding of the situation is critical.
What has been noticed is that between 70% and 80% of the H-1B visas granted in 2006 went to India-based outsourcing firms. Employees of these firms were not being hired to work for U.S. businesses but, rather, to effectively study how U.S. businesses operate and to determine their needs and methods.
After the stunning demand for the H-1B visa this year, people began to investigate the problem. Congress and the White House are trying to craft major immigration reform this year, and an understanding of the situation is critical.
What has been noticed is that between 70% and 80% of the H-1B visas granted in 2006 went to India-based outsourcing firms. Employees of these firms were not being hired to work for U.S. businesses but, rather, to effectively study how U.S. businesses operate and to determine their needs and methods.
gc28262
04-11 09:03 PM
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate your question. Let me explain you in details.
I am not sure about Mexican illegals but I can tell about Indian.
Normally person come here illegally alone. Very few people are coming here with spouse. it is absolutely sure that their kids are at backhome with other family members. Many illegal people have used 245(i) and all have priority date before April 2001 as before 2001 they should have to file labor. Fraudulent practice was prevailed in the small business community. They used to file labor certificate in dummy name and once it approve, they are selling to others (labor substitution was legal at that time). Most of 245(i) cases have purchased labor with big $$$. All the 245(i) were approved from 2002 to now. Their case is counting in EB3 category. Once persons case is approved, he will file I 824 (Follow to join family members) for wife and/or kids who are waiting in India. Once I 824 approve, case is transferred to respective CP at back home. It is slow process and take any where from 1 year to 4 to 5 years in some cases. This cases are consuming EB3 quota. We don't know how many cases are in pipeline. But I know few people whose GC was approved under 245(i) and their kids are waiting at Back home. This is the reason why EB3 India is struck around 2001 for many years. If still lot of 245(i) derivative cases are in pipeline, it can retrogress back to April 2001.
I am highlighting truth so that we should not make any mistake in next CIR (same channel and resources for EB legals and 13 millions illegal). if history repeat for CIR, it may not hurt all legal EB community who are reading this post today but future generation EB legal have big blow.
My dear friend Ron Hira is calling me racist !! I always laughing for his immaturity (In fact, I ignore his post). Insisting for following rule is racist. Opposing people who kept EB legal provisions hostages since 2005 is racist??? people in this forum are much smart who is talking what !!!
I remember Mahatma Ganghi's quotes:
" I can wait 100 years for freedom but don't want it through violent route"
khodalmd,
Thanks for the clarification. I think you are right in terms of "follow to join" 245(i) cases. EB3-I may not be out of 245(i) bump yet.
Here is a USCIS memo regarding 245(i)
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/245i.pdf
Relevant portion:
"Many aliens with pending, grandfathered petitions or labor certification applications will marry or have children after the qualifying petition or application was filed but before adjustment of status. These "after-acquired" children and spouses are allowed to adjust under 245(i) as long as they acquire the status of a spouse or child before the principal alien ultimately adjusts status."
On another note, wouldn't the spouses/children of 245(i) applicants be eligible for "follow to join" applications when the primary applicant's application is still pending ? Why would they wait till the approval of primary's AOS application ?
I am not sure about Mexican illegals but I can tell about Indian.
Normally person come here illegally alone. Very few people are coming here with spouse. it is absolutely sure that their kids are at backhome with other family members. Many illegal people have used 245(i) and all have priority date before April 2001 as before 2001 they should have to file labor. Fraudulent practice was prevailed in the small business community. They used to file labor certificate in dummy name and once it approve, they are selling to others (labor substitution was legal at that time). Most of 245(i) cases have purchased labor with big $$$. All the 245(i) were approved from 2002 to now. Their case is counting in EB3 category. Once persons case is approved, he will file I 824 (Follow to join family members) for wife and/or kids who are waiting in India. Once I 824 approve, case is transferred to respective CP at back home. It is slow process and take any where from 1 year to 4 to 5 years in some cases. This cases are consuming EB3 quota. We don't know how many cases are in pipeline. But I know few people whose GC was approved under 245(i) and their kids are waiting at Back home. This is the reason why EB3 India is struck around 2001 for many years. If still lot of 245(i) derivative cases are in pipeline, it can retrogress back to April 2001.
I am highlighting truth so that we should not make any mistake in next CIR (same channel and resources for EB legals and 13 millions illegal). if history repeat for CIR, it may not hurt all legal EB community who are reading this post today but future generation EB legal have big blow.
My dear friend Ron Hira is calling me racist !! I always laughing for his immaturity (In fact, I ignore his post). Insisting for following rule is racist. Opposing people who kept EB legal provisions hostages since 2005 is racist??? people in this forum are much smart who is talking what !!!
I remember Mahatma Ganghi's quotes:
" I can wait 100 years for freedom but don't want it through violent route"
khodalmd,
Thanks for the clarification. I think you are right in terms of "follow to join" 245(i) cases. EB3-I may not be out of 245(i) bump yet.
Here is a USCIS memo regarding 245(i)
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/245i.pdf
Relevant portion:
"Many aliens with pending, grandfathered petitions or labor certification applications will marry or have children after the qualifying petition or application was filed but before adjustment of status. These "after-acquired" children and spouses are allowed to adjust under 245(i) as long as they acquire the status of a spouse or child before the principal alien ultimately adjusts status."
On another note, wouldn't the spouses/children of 245(i) applicants be eligible for "follow to join" applications when the primary applicant's application is still pending ? Why would they wait till the approval of primary's AOS application ?
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